BASTA Pac-12: Stanford Football Defensive Season Preview

((HT: BASTA their own selves/Ben Leonard))

The Stanford Cardinal come in to the 2014 season facing the daunting task of Pac-12 and Rose Bowl three-peat. It may be even harder this year, with many stalwarts on the defensive side of the ball from 2013 graduating. It will have to get past third-ranked Oregon in the Pac-12 North once again, although the Cardinal have prevailed in the last two contests. Kevin Hogan’s Stanford team has been kryptonite for Oregon and their high-octane offense. Will David Shaw and the Cardinal be able to overcome their daunting road schedule and reach the promised land, the sparkling new College Football Playoff?

DEFENSE

It all starts with the defense for this Stanford program that plays a brand of hard-nose football envied around the nation. Last season, this team allowed a measly 19.0 points per game, good for tenth best in the country and first in the Pac-12. Will they be able to continue their dominance in 2014?

FRONT SEVEN

The dominant front seven that Stanford employed last season completely shut down the running game, holding opponents to a miniscule 2.9 yards per carry. It should be a force again in 2014.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Stanford will lose defensive ends Josh Mauro and Ben Gardner, stalwarts on the edge. Gardner, one of the Cardinal’s senior leaders, totaled 7.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks despite playing in only eight games, due to a torn pectoral muscle that ended his final college season early. He fell to the seventh round because of the injury, despite exceptional tools. (39.5″ vertical) He will be a tough part to replace.

Aziz Shittu, a junior and former five-star recruit, will work in tandem with fifth-year senior Blake Lueders to fill in for Gardner. Shittu has fallen short of his lofty expectations so far, totaling only five tackles in all of 2013. He has been behind many great players, so the playing time has not been consistently there. He should have blossomed in this newfound opportunity, but failed to pass the scrappy Lueders on the depth chart. Lueders was the superior player last year, collecting 23 tackles, five for loss, and 2.5 sacks. Lueders was a four-star recruit coming out of high school, so he is not exactly a walk-on. He has the experience knowledge of the system under his belt that Shittu lacks, and will likely take most of the snaps at defensive end.

Henry Anderson will start at the other end position. Anderson, an emotional leader for the team and a fifth-year senior, missed the beginning of last year after suffering a knee injury versus Army. He returned in full force, making nineteen tackles in eight games, along with three sacks. He is an Athlon Sports Pre-Season First-Team Pac-12 Honoree, and is on the watch list for numerous awards.

David Parry, another fifth-year senior, will hold down the nose tackle position, a role he has thrived in since being installed as the starter in 2012. The line will not miss a beat in 2014, with boatloads of veteran leadership, as all three are fifth-year seniors. As daunting a task it may seem, the combination of Shittu and Lueders will prove to be competent to replace Gardner, a prominent figure in Stanford’s resurgence as a program.

LINEBACKERS

The Farm will certainly miss the presence of the menacing Shayne Skov, who graduated after his fifth-year senior season. His fire and ruthless play was invaluable for the success of this program, going to four BCS bowls under his leadership. Skov was sixth in Stanford history with 354 tackles in his career, despite only playing three games in 2011 after suffering a torn ACL. His instinct was unparalleled at the college level. One of the most memorable plays was his play to jump the snap against Taylor Kelly and ASU in the Pac-12 championship game.

SKOV’S RELENTLESS STYLE OF PLAY LEAD STANFORD TO DEFEAT OREGON 26-23

Although no one can replicate Skov’s leadership and passion, Blake Martinez will be considered successful if he can mean half of what Skov meant. This is by no means a cheap shot at Martinez, but a testament to the ability of Skov. Martinez has received very little playing time because of Skov’s presence. He has, however, taken advantage of his limited opportunities. He thrived in the Big Game versus Cal, forcing a fumble, picking off Jared Goff and totaling six tackles in a blowout. He has shown Coach Shaw that, when given a chance, will give it his all to help the team win. He also showed up on a big stage in the Pac-12 Championship game, making five tackles in Stanford’s beat down of the Sun Devils. He is an underrated piece in the offense that will surprise many by playing an integral role in the defense in 2014, despite being an unheralded recruit.

A.J. Tarpley, another fifth-year senior, will try to emulate Skov’s role, being the veteran leader at inside linebacker. He clearly feels comfortable filling in for Skov, as he put it, “Look at Coach Shaw. When everyone said, ‘Coach Harbaugh’s leaving, how are you going to replace his excitement, his determination for the game?’ He just said he’s David Shaw. He has his way of doing things,” Tarpley said. “To me, that’s worked out pretty well.”

He was quietly great last year, making 93 hard-fought tackles, good for second on the team. An All Pac-12 Honorable Mention in 2013, Tarpley will continue to improve and gain more recognition as an elite linebacker, as he will take over a team captain spot, and was also honored as an USA Today’s preseason second-team All American. Skov’s name brand may be gone, but Tarpley is fully capable of reproducing Shayne’s production.

At the outside linebacker position, Trent Murphy leaves huge shoes for Kevin Anderson to fill. A consensus All American, his pass rushing presence will be sorely missed. Although he lacked speed and explosion, his motor, instincts, and variety of moves certainly made up for it. He ranked second nationally with 1.07 sacks/game, and fourth in the nation with 1.7 tackles for loss/game.

Anderson, a senior, has proved he can excel under the brightest of lights. He had a 40-yard interception return for a touchdown against Michigan State in the Rose Bowl, and would have had a second for a touchdown had he not dropped it. Anderson, a Palo Alto High School graduate, when asked about replacing Murphy, explained: “I want to emulate him on the field. But at the same time, I can’t think to myself, ‘I have to lead the nation in sacks like Trent did.’”

Anderson finished fourth on the team in tackles for loss, and should continue to improve and mature as a run-stopping outside linebacker. He in no way will be able play up to the pass-rushing caliber of Murphy. Murphy and Anderson are very different styles of player, as Anderson is built to stop the run.

James Vaughters was quietly brilliant in 2013, and will return even stronger in 2014. At 6’2″ and 258 pounds, he is an intimidating force for Stanford’s front seven. He was a major contributor in the landmark win versus Oregon, forcing a fumble, sacking Marcus Mariota, and adding four tackles. As a former four-star recruit, he will continue to grow, especially with gaining more experience at the outside linebacker position. He played on the inside in high school, and also played there in 2012.

SECONDARY

The secondary simply could not measure up to the vaunted front seven in 2013, mostly because teams would run an Air-Raid offense to avoid running into Shayne Skov and Trent Murphy.

The pass defense ranked eighth in the Pac-12 in total passing defense, but was tenth (behind only Cal and WSU) in opponent’s completion percentage (62.1%)

Stanford returns four out of five starters out of the secondary from 2013, the exception being Ed Reynolds. Reynolds made the curious decision to leave for the NFL Draft despite having another year of eligibility and having a down year (in terms of interceptions) in 2013. He was projected to be a sixth or seventh round pick, yet still left, and was taken in the fifth round by Philadelphia. A year being one yard short of setting the NCAA single-season record for interception return yards with 301 and a school record three returns for touchdowns, he only had one interception in 2013. He did improve upon his tackling(86 vs. 47), but still struggled to make plays in the open field.

Kyle Olugbode will replace Reynolds at free safety. He played in all fourteen games last year, totaling thirteen tackles in limited time. He may go through some growing pains early, as he has simply just not had the experience that Reynolds had.

The cornerback tandem of Alex Carter and Wayne Lyons will continue to lock down opposing receivers. Carter missed spring practice with a hip injury, but will be ready to go for the opener Saturday against UC Davis. His absence at practice created more opportunities to groom backups Ra’Chard Pippens and Ronnie Harris to play in the future. Carter was a four-star recruit, was lauded by Coach David Shaw:

“Quick, fast, explosive, aggressive, tough, great ball skills, he’s grown every single week and he’s still growing,” Shaw said. “He’s kind of what you want out there as a corner…. He’s just got more size and weight than those other guys. When he comes up and hits you, he lets you feel it.”

Lyons, also a four-star recruit, came into his own in 2013. He was fifth on the team in tackles with 69, and had two clutch fourth quarter interceptions to seal the game versus Notre Dame. He comes into 2014 being pegged as a third team preseason All-Pac 12 corner by Phil Steele.

LYONS HAD A LOT TO CELEBRATE IN 2013

Jordan Richards will return as the unquestioned leader of the secondary at strong safety. As a consensus preseason All American, it will be upon his shoulders to make up for the loss of Reynolds. He is up to the task, as he was a second team All Pac-12 player in 2013, according to Phil Steele. He is tough against the run, yet also excels in pass coverage. He will be playing on Sundays too soon for Stanford’s taste.

OVERVIEW: David Shaw’s abundant wealth of talent and exceptional scheming should be enough to make up for the loss of many senior leaders. However, road games versus #3 Oregon, #25 Washington, #7 UCLA, #18 Arizona State, and #17 Notre Dame will provide ample opportunities for slip ups. The daunting schedule, the toughest in the country, will be tough to overcome, especially given the way this team has played on the road in recent years.

Here's head coach David Shaw addressing the team's challenges for the season...
((HT: GoStanford.com/Pac-12 Network))

College Football Preview: Sun Belt Conference

SUN BELT CONFERENCE

Talk about a conference in flux, gone are FIU, FAU, Middle Tennessee and North Texas to Conference USA.  Welcome Georgia State and Texas State to the SBC however the conference remains in transition.

Western Kentucky is playing its final season in the Sun Belt and headed to C-USA.  Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, New Mexico State and Idaho join in 2014. 

Recently the Sun Belt Conference has earned a reputation of scaring the bejesus out of SEC teams, sometimes succeeding.  Do you think BCS schools Oklahoma, Wake Forest and Baylor are a bit uneasy with Louisiana-Monroe on the schedule this year?

GEORGIA STATE PANTHERS                                                                                                           2012 Record: 1-10, 1-7 in CAA

Georgia State ended their Football Championship Subdivision era bottoming out at 1-10 and getting pounded in the Colonial Athletic Association with one win in conference.  That was a 41-7 win over Rhode Island.  Not the ending former GSU head coach Bill Curry wanted to end his career with.

Georgia State begins a new era in 2013.  The Panthers have moved up to the FBS level and a member of the Sun Belt Conference. 

There is also a new head coach in Trent Miles who has worked one miracle.

WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT GEORGIA STATE:

TRENT MILES: If ever there was a coach who could resurrect a flat lined football program it’s Miles.  He took over a near dead Indiana State program that had won one game in three years.  After winning just one game in his first two seasons as the head coach of the Sycamores Miles turned the program around with three consecutive winning seasons. 

The track record is there so there is reason for optimism for Panther fans.

WHAT GEORGIA STATE NEEDS TO IMPROVE ON:

OFFENSE: The Panther offense was awful last season.  Georgia State averaged only 17.4 points per game in their final season in FCS.  Former Boston College head coach Jeff Jagodzinski runs the GSU offense now as the new offensive coordinator.  You can bet Jagodzinski will be drawing up plays to get the ball in the hands of senior wide receiver Albert Wilson, the best playmaker on the team.

SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN:

At least the program can pay the bills after trips to West Virginia (Sept. 14^th) and at Alabama (Oct. 5^th).  Chattanooga (Sept. 7^th) and South Alabama (Nov. 30^th) appear to be the most winnable games on the docket.

OSG’s TAKE:

Wilkie: I love the hiring of Trent Miles but his first year at GSU might be an oh – for.

Phil: Good coaching staff, profitable schedule, not near enough athletes. May eventually be competitive, but not this yr.

Jon: I think the Miles era will be another painful one in the Georgia Dome

SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS                                                                                                           2012 Record: 2-11

The transitional period is over for the Jaguars, they can compete for the Sun Belt Championship.  That won’t happen this year.

WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT SOUTH ALABAMA:

JUCO TRANFERS: Head coach Joey Jones is going the junior college route to find some size for his defense which wasn’t bad last year, just small.  Nine JUCO transfers are expected to either start or contribute significantly.

THEY HAVE A QUARTERBACK: His name is Ross Metheny and Joey Jones has put his trust in Metheny that he can provide the explosive plays (30 to 40 yard plays) that was lacking last season. 

WHAT SOUTH ALABAMA NEEDS TO IMPROVE ON:

JUST NOT THERE YET: It’s up to the JUCO transfers as how much South Alabama improves from their 2-9 record last season. 

SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN: South Alabama has some of the Sun Belt big boys Arkansas State, Louisiana- Lafayette and Western Kentucky at home.  Going 2 of 3 against those teams and that might mean challenging for an upper division finish. 

OSG’S TAKE:

Wilkie: South Alabama is on the right track.  They will be better than last year but I’m afraid the final won-loss record might not reflect it.

Phil: Again, growing pains abound. They are on the right path, but it’s a bigger jump from small to large than most think. It will eventually come, but not this year. 4 wins or more will be huge achievement.

Jon: Agree. Joey Jones has been there since the beginning and I have the feeling he’ll be there for the long-term. The administration has put a lot of trust in him. And they’ll need a lot more…

TEXAS STATE BOBCATS                                                                                                            2012 Record: 4-8

Welcome to the Sun Belt Texas State.  The highlight of the 2012 season was upsetting Houston 30-13 in week one but couldn’t back that up the rest of the year. 

WHAT TEXAS STATE NEEDS TO IMPROVE ON:

DEFENSE: Michael Orakpo (Brother of NFL star Brian Orakpo) joins the Bobcats after transferring from Colorado State and should make an impact on a defense that had a tough time against the run last season.  Part of the reason was David Mayo missed the last five games of the season with a knee injury.  This unit should be much better.

WHAT TEXAS STATE NEEDS TO IMPROVE ON:

OFFENSIVE LINE:  The O-Line gave up 28 sacks last season.  That has to change for Texas State’s offense to be successful.

SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN: Of the Sun Belt big boys only Western Kentucky comes to San Marcos.  Wyoming pays a visit to the Texas plains so that might be a winnable game that might raise an eye brow or two.

OSG’S TAKE:

Wilkie: Head coach Dennis Franchione is optimistic this team might have a breakout season.  I’m not sure I share that but they will be a pain in the backside in their first season in the Sun Belt.

Phil: Better, but yet again, a long way to go....

Jon: Agree again… pain for everyone, but it won’t translate into a lot of wins…

TROY TROJANS                                                                                                                             2012 Record: 5-7

During Larry Blankney’s 22 seasons as head coach at Troy he never experienced back to back losing seasons until now.  In 2011 Troy was 3-9 and in 2012 the Trojans finished 5-7.  Troy will be trying to avoid a third losing year in a row.

WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT TROY:

COREY ROBINSON: Robinson is a four year starter with an impressive body of work that includes 10,258 career passing yards, the nation’s active leader.  Robinson had some injury issues last year so he must stay healthy.  Robinson has some skill on the edges to throw to.  Eric Thomas is his favorite target and caught 55 passes last year. 

WHAT TROY NEEDS TO IMPROVE ON:

OFFENSIVE LINE: Terrance Jones is the lone holdover from 2012 and he’s moving from right tackle to left tackle to protect Robinson’s blind side.  It will be a work in progress.

DEFENSE: The Trojan defense finished dead last in the SBC last year so there’s nowhere to go but up.  Generating a decent pass rush has been an issue.

SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN: It doesn’t favor Troy.  The Trojans road games include SBC heavyweights Arkansas State, Western Kentucky and Louisiana-Lafayette.  Plus Troy travels twice to Mississippi (vs. Mississippi State on Sept 21^st and Ole Miss Nov. 16st.) and at Duke (Sept. 28^th).

OSG’S TAKE:

Wilkie: Troy will avoid a third straight losing season for Larry Blankney because Corey Robinson is that good but they will have to outscore opponents.

Phil: No D= not enough wins. A .500 team if there ever was one. Outscoring people only works in the Big 12 and Pac 12.

Jon: I see a lot of Nintendo scores for Blakeney and Troy this year, and that may be the only reason they are over .500

ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES                                                                                                                                                                                
2012 Record: 10-3, Sun Belt Conference Champions

The Bryan Harsin era has begun in Jonesboro, ASU’s third head coach in 4 years.  You can’t blame Hugh Freeze or Gus Malzahn.  They parlayed their successful seasons at ASU into head coaching jobs in the SEC.  If this is a stepping stone job for Harsin then he picked the right place and the cupboard isn’t bare at ASU.

THINGS TO LIKE ABOUT ARKANSAS STATE:

PLEATHORA OF TALENT OUT THERE: Arkansas State has some players. Tennessee transfer David Oku gained 1,061 yards and 16 touchdowns last year and could top those numbers in his senior season.  The receiving corps is solid led by 2012 SBC Freshman of the Year J.D. McKissic who had 1,022 yards receiving yards.  The Red Wolves also return a solid defense that’s tough to score points on.

WHAT ARKANSAS STATE NEEDS TO IMPROVE ON:

WHO’S GOING TO PLAY QUARTERBACK: Ryan Aplin won’t be walking through the door for ASU this year.  The battle is joined between Phillip Butterfield and Fredi Knighten.

SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN: ASU has ULM and Western Kentucky on the road.  Troy and Louisiana Lafayette travel to Jonesboro.  ASU has two SEC schools on the schedule, at Auburn Sept. 7^th and at Missouri Sept. 28^th, winnable SEC road games. 

OSG’S TAKE

Wilkie: Whoever wins the QB competition between Butterfield or Knighten and there isn’t much of a drop off at that position then the Red Wolves might repeat as SBC champions.  . 

Phil: One of the leagues powers. If the system is indeed staying the same, they’ll be a tough out for anybody. All they need is some defense.

Jon: I think Ark State will be in the mix again this year for the title… and they may scare someone along the way outside the SBC

LOUISIANA RAJIN’ CAJUNS                                                                                                                              2012 Record: 9-4

Mark Hudspeth has revived this program. He’s 18-8 in his two seasons as the head coach of the Rajin’ Cajuns.  Hudspeth might be the next SBC head coach that is hired by a BCS school and a bit surprised it hasn’t happened yet. 

WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT LOUISIANA – LAFAYETTE:

ENJOY THE BROADWAY SHOW: Junior Terrence Broadway performed to rave reviews in 2012 setting school records for total offense (3,616 yards) and completion percentage (65.4).  Junior Alonzo Harris is the Cajuns’ best back gaining 881 yards last year.  If Louisiana-Lafayette can find some go-to receivers the Cajun offense would be loaded.

WHAT NOT TO LIKE ABOUT LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE:

DEFENDING THE PASS: ULL was dead last in the SBC last season against the pass and gave up way to many big plays through the air.  There will be pressure on the Cajun defensive backs to cut down on allowing explosive plays.

SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN:

The Cajuns open the season at Arkansas and at Kansas State so a 0-2 start might be likely.  After that they must go to WKU and Arkansas State.

OSG’s TAKE:

Wilkie: Louisiana-Lafayette may have to outscore opponents to win and they are perfectly capable of doing that.  The Cajuns will challenge for the SBC title

Phil: Have to be careful here (wife is alum). Hudspeth may be best coach in league. He’s stabilized a very inconsistent team. Lots of talent back and Mr. Broadway may be the leagues best. If D shows up, they play for title. End of debate.

Jon: I think it’ll be Lafayette and Ark State again challenging for the title. One goes to New Orleans, the other to Mobile…

WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS                                                                                                                                2012 Record: 7-6

Goodbye Willie Taggart, hello Bobby Petrino.  There’s a lot of baggage their but Bowling Green, KY might be the perfect place for Petrino to rehab his coaching career.  Petrino will have some decent tools to work with.

THINGS TO LIKE ABOUT WESTERN KENTUCKY:

BOBBY PETRINO:  Love him or hate him Petrino can really coach and he has some outstanding offensive players in place.  Running back Antonio Andrews is a special talent.  Andrews gained 3,161 all-purpose yards last season, only Barry Sanders had surpassed over 3,000 all-purpose yards in a single season.  Andrews damn near had 2,000 yards rushing falling a few hundred yards short.  Petrino loves to use tight ends in his offense and WKY is well stocked there.

WHAT WESTERN KENTUCKY NEEDS TO IMPROVE ON:

FRONT FOUR:  WKY defense must replace its entire front four which was outstanding last season.  That’s going to put some pressure on All-SBC middle linebacker Andrew Jackson to make plays. 

SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN:

Western Kentucky opens with back to back game against SEC schools.  WKY opens the season in Nashville against Kentucky, the Hilltoppers defeated the Wildcats in Lexington last year and it’s a winnable game again.  Then it’s off to Knoxville to battle Tennessee, could be winnable.  November might be the determining factor for WKY in the Sun Belt title race with three road games in a row that month against conference foes.

OSG’S TAKE:

Wilkie:  I get the feeling the Hilltoppers want to win now because Bobby Petrino won’t be there long term is that happens.  Even with all his transgressions college football’s big boys will be willing to take a chance on Petrino, he’s that good a coach.  I expect WKY will be challenging for the SBC championship and may just win it.

Phil: They will be better, and scary. The description fits a Petrino team even if it’s not his players. Like most teams in Sun Belt, good offense wins. Just needs D to show up and make an occasional stop. They’ll play for title next yr.

Jon: I think it may take a season for Petrino to get his way with his players (and not Taggart’s) in Bowling Green. They’ll finish third and next season will be the one to pay attention to for a title- and a Petrino exit.

LOUISIANA – MONROE WARHAWKS                                                                                                                                                           2012 Record: 8-5

After defeating Arkansas last year the Warhawks were mid-major darlings.  ULM looked like Sun Belt Champions last year until injuries took their toll.  With key elements returning ULM looks poised to win the SBC.

WHAT TO LIKE ABOUT LOUISIANA – MONROE:

KOLTON BROWNING: He’s back and he’s healthy.  Browning was off to a special season until a leg injury sidelined him and the Warhawks lost two important games against Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State.  The last impression you have of Browning was his three interception performance in a loss to Ohio in the Independence Bowl.    Browning is way too good for that and should have a SBC Player of the Year time season.

WHAT LOUISIANA-MONROE NEEDS TO IMPROVE ON:

DEFENDING THE PASS:  ULM’s defensive backs have talent and can stick a running back but gave up big plays from good passing offenses.  It didn’t help either that the Warhawk pass rush was not as consistent as it should be.  It’s very fixable because it’s a talented group.

SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN:

ULM opens at Oklahoma, they won’t win that one.  Two weeks later the Warhawks head to Winston-Salem, NC to face Wake Forest, which could be winnable.  Then take on Baylor in Waco, TX, last year ULM lost a wild one to Baylor 47-41 so put that in the winnable column.  Western Kentucky and Arkansas State must come to Monroe, a big plus.  ULM closes on the road against rival ULL. 

OSG’s TAKE:

Wilkie:  This is ULM’s time, my favorite to win the Sun Belt Conference. 

Phil: Could be an all-Louisiana title game. Solid squad that would not have finished last in the SEC last season. They’ll scare everyone they play. And they should. If they go 2-1 vs. Big Boys, they’ll be bowling...

Jon: Sorry, I take it back. Ark State, Lafayette, and Monroe will be ahead of Western. Monroe could be bowl eligible by the end of it all and could make it to Detroit or another far-flung place.

SBC Champions:

Wilkie: Louisana-Monroe – This is a deep and talented football team.  The Warhawks are built for a special season.

Phil: Ragin-Cajuns. (I have to say this)

Jon: Lafayette

OSG Sports previews the SEC West because we did the East too

SEC West

Yes, this is where the power currently sits. The top 3 here more than likely would win the East, but they aren't in the East...so they can't.

1) LSU  12-0, 8-0 in the conference

Overview: This is the best team in the SEC, even without the Honey Badger. And the deepest. They need Zack Mettenberger to be better than Jordan Jefferson was, which shouldn't be difficult. If that happens, nobody will stop them. 

Offense: QB Mettenberger is a classic, drop back thrower. He's not fast, but doesn't have to be. With a 4-deep set of running backs and a slew of receivers, as long as the blocking is good, this will be a much, much better unit than in 2011

Defense: Losing Tyrnann Mathieu will hurt, but it seems like they just keep trotting out amazing athletes to play on defense. And as long as Barkevious Mingo is there to take a bite out of people, the D-Line is going to be really good. 

Our Thoughts: The only potential stumbling block is the Alabama game...and that is going to be played in Death Valley. Probably in Prime Time. They will be, shall we say, motivated for that one. Seriously, unless Mettenberger gets hurt, nobody is beating them this season.

2) Alabama 11-1, 7-1 in conference

Overview: The only challenge will be the nighttime game in Baton Rouge the first weekend of November... the HQ figures that, by the way we've structured things, you can determine who we think will win...

Offense: QB A.J McCarron figures to get better if they can find a wide receiver. Eddy Lacy becomes the man and the line is deep. Really deep and experienced. Don't expect them to get in many shootouts, because while the offense is pretty good, they aren't great.

Defense: Nick Saban's calling card. But they lost 7 starters after the season and need a LOT of guys without experience to step up. There's a lot of youth. But LB Nico Johnson, S Robert Lester and CB Dee Milliner are pretty much it.

Our Thoughts: They'll be very, very good, but the inexperience on defense will hurt them. They should win everything except the LSU game, though they are going to be exposed. We wouldn't be surprised if someone upsets them early.


3) Arkansas 10-2, 6-2 in the conference

Overview: It will be really interesting to see how they handle the transition from Petrino to the slightly less stable John L. Smith. As long as Tyler Wilson and Knile Davis stay healthy though, they have a chance to beat anyone they play.

Offense: QB Wilson is arguably the SEC's best. Assuming he isn't sulking from Petrino's departure, he'll keep them in most games. They do need a WR to step up though, there are no Joe Adams or Greg Childs to rescue them. The running backs and line are solid and will supplement the passing game.

Defense: Well, they lost their 4 best players and their coordinator. But aside from that, well, they aren't the two teams ahead of them. Thankfully they are good enough to outscore most people. Perhaps the two biggest names are Tank Wright and Alonzo Highsmith Jr, both Linebackers.

Our thoughts: They'll be pretty good, and quite honestly should win every game but the LSU and Bama games. Much like Alabama there are a TON of questions on defense. As long as John L. doesn't cost them a game or two with bizarre coaching 101, they'll be fine.

Now, to Group Two... you can, pretty much, put a blanket over the three of these guys... they'll all be in the hunt for other early bowls and should cancel out each other's attempts at getting closer to the top of the division...

4) Auburn 7-5, 4-4 in the conference

Overview: The team has tried to find its identity at quarterback with any of four different guys taking snaps behind center last season. The defense has kept the Tigers in games and kept them out of games. Graduation took out another chunk of the squad that was very young last year...

Offense: Is it Kiehl Frazier, Moseley, or Trotter with some CJ Uzomah thrown in like last year, or will they settle on one guy...??? Whoever it is will have all-world H-Back Phillip Lutzkenkirchen to throw to along with Emory Blake. But losing two seniors on the line doesn't help...

Defense: Only two seniors leave, and most Auburn fans are happy Neiko Thorpe is one of them. The young get a year older, and that's important...

Our Thoughts: They aren't on the "Elite" level the teams ahead of them are.  The offense will have to find its identity and the defense will have to carry the team early on... if it can't, The Chiz will have a long year...

5) Miss State 7-5.4-4 in the conference

Overview: Dan Mullen is getting his stamp put on the Starkville program and his identity is defined by tough defense and an electric offense- we're seeing both now...

Offense: Tyler Russell and Jameon Lewis are the one-two to pay attention to for the Bulldogs and they should put up a lot of numbers... Mullen is confident that this is his deepest backfield since he started at the school...

Defense: Johnathan Banks will be getting a lot of attention in the secondary, and not just for being in the secondary. He'll get a lot of play everywhere Mullen will let him. But, when everyone throws away from him, how will the rest of the guys help out...???

Outlook: The early, soft schedule gets them to a good start (5-2 or 6-1), but it's all downhill from there...

6) Texas A&M 6-6, 2-6 in the conference.

Overview: Gentlemen, we give you...the deep end of the pool. Please commence swimming. We like this program and think Kevin Sumlin is a good coach, but he has some holes to fix.

Offense: A&M fans are going to miss Ryan Tannehill whether they realize it yet or no. Redshirt freshman Johnny Manziel is the starting quarterback... Really...??? Really...??? But he will have O-Lineman Luke Joeckel (a pre-season Outland watch-list nominee) protecting part of his backside.

Defense: Damontre Moore is one of the better players on that side of the ball, but they're moving him to defensive end from linebacker... and interesting transition, for sure...

Outlook: Year One will be an adventure... the HQ thinks the Aggies won't be swimming too well this year, but give them some time.

7) Ole Miss 4-8, 2-6 in the conference

Overview: What happens when you're in a situation that wasn't your doing and you get to try and fix it...??? Just ask Hugh Freeze... that's his new job in Oxford...

Offense: The HQ has seen Freeze ever since his Lambuth days, so we know what he does. He finds the tallest, most athletic guys he can find, outs them on the edge and gets a quarterback who can play out of the shotgun and throw his arm off getting it to the receivers.

A lot of yards, a lot of points, a lot of mistakes...

Defense: The problem with the above category is that you will need guys who can stay out on the field for a long time if football's version of pong has more negative than positive. That will happen here... "too tired" will be a phrase uttered by a lot of pundits in fourth quarters this year...

Outlook: Recruits will fall in love with new head coach Hugh Freeze's offense, but Colonel Reb will have a lot of catching up to do to compete in the conference.


Division MVP: Barkevious Mingo, LSU

Best Offensive Player: Tyler Wilson, Arkansas

Best Defensive Player: Nico Johnson, Alabama

OSG Previews the SEC East because we can

Not a ton of things going on...or to do on a pleasant weekend at OSG Global HQ. So we decided "Better late then never" and will give you are 2 1/2 cents on everyone's favorite College Football conference, the SEC.

We'll list the contenders by division, starting with the East...and where we think they'll finish.

SEC East--

1. Georgia 10-2 overall, 5-2 in conference.

Overview: Everyone looks and says "Soft Schedule" and well, they aren't wrong. This however is a very talented, though not very deep team that could be very, very good.

Offense: With Aaron Murray and a deep bunch of Receivers led by Tavarres King, they'll be a tough out for anyone. We'd like them more if they had Malcolm Mitchell the whole season, but they won't. The Running Backs are young, but could be very, very good. Watch out for true freshman Todd Gurley.

The line is a big question, though they are very big and athletic. How they go will determine how this offense goes.

Defense: This should, once the suspension season ends, be one of the best "D's" in the country. They are big, fast and deep everywhere except maybe defensive back where they will not have at least two starters the first couple games.

Jarvis Jones is an All-World Linebacker and John Jenkins and Cornelius Washington are pretty darn good on the line. Shawn Williams and Baccari Rambo are All-American level safeties.

Our thoughts: Anything less then the SEC Championship game for them will be a letdown. And it should be. This is one of the better groups Coach Mark Richt has had in awhile, let's see if they for once can live up to expectations.


2. Florida  9-3 overall, 4-3 in confernce

Overview: Year 2 of Coach Boom and the natives are already restless. The natives have no idea how bare Urban Meyer left the cupboard.

Offense: Jeff Driskell seems to have the QB job...for now. Mike Gillislee gives them the 1st "Power" back they've had in a long time. But who is going to catch it? The O-Line is solid and there is a lot of buzz about new coordinator Brent Pease's offense. Can they deliver?

Defense: Big, strong and pretty deep. This will be the Florida calling card in 2012. Dominique Easley and Shariff Floyd anchor the line, Jon Bostic at Linebacker and Marcus Roberson at Cornerback all have All-American potential.

Our thoughts: They'll be better. Particularly if they can score. The defense is very good, the offense has a ton of questions. Only time will tell if they'll be answered.

3. South Carolina 9-3 overall, 4-3 in conference.

Overview: With the return of Marcus Lattimore and Jadeveon Clowney, they'll be a tough out for anyone. Though we aren't sold on Connor Shaw.

Offense: All things go through the QB. Shaw stepped up last year, but was really inconsistent. He'll have to be really good for the 'Cocks (I said Cock) to be elite. Marcus Lattimore returns with a new knee and a lot to prove. Does he have it in him? Who will step up and replace Alshon Jefferey?

Defense: They lost a lot of guys here. Clowney returns, but all the other headliners graduated. Someone at linebacker and in the defensive backfield will have to step up. We don't see a lot of low scoring games for this team.

Our thoughts: Good, not great. We don't buy these guys as heavily as some others. They'll be able to outscore some people, but we think the biggest loss they had may be former D-Coordinator Ellis Johnson.

4. Missouri 8-4, 3-4 in conference

Overview: They should be a solid addition at least to this division of the SEC. There is some talent here, but there's going to be a learning curve for their new home. No way around it.

Offense: It will all starts with QB James Franklin. As he goes, the team will go and he's pretty solid. A good runner/passer who should fit right in with the big boys of the SEC. Henry Josey and T.J Moe make for some good support.

Defense: That's the question. There is some concern this isn't an elite SEC level defense. We should find out pretty fast. A lot of solid contributors, but no standouts in this unit.

Our thoughts: The Tigers will be competitive in their new home. They aren't far away from elite level, the defense will hold them back. Franklin should be one of the best QB's in the whole conference, at least on paper.

5. Tennessee 6-6, 2-5 in the conference

Overview: This is a make or break season for coach Derek Dooley whether he likes it or not. The natives are VERY restless in Knoxville. And this should be a decent team who may scare some folks, but we don't believe they are quite as good as the teams in front of them.

Offense: Tyler Bray should be healthy. And if he is, the Vols will throw the ball. A lot. There is experience on the offensive line. The skill positions will be tended to by committee which is why we aren't naming many names.

Defense: Defensive End Jacques Smith and LB A.J Johnson will make sure the defense is solid. There is some other talent here, but it's again a mish-mash of guys and the main reason we don't rank them higher.

Our Thoughts: They will be a dangerous out, but there still aren't the horses here to run with the big boys. Bray is excellent, Smith and Johnson are awfully good, the rest...are role players. And that is the difference between this and UT teams from years gone by.

We don't dislike Derrick Dooley, even though this will be an improved team, we're afraid anything less than 8 wins and he won't keep his job.

6. Vanderbilt 6-6. 2-5 in the conference.

Overview: We want to like this team. Really we do. And they are everyone's darlings. Coach James Franklin made a BIG impact with this bunch, within the SEC and especially in the Nashville area. He has them heading in the right direction.

Offense:  Zac Stacy is a very good running back. Jordan Rodgers played well the 2nd half of last season, but is being challenged in camp. That may or may not be good. Wesley Johnson anchors a deep, experienced line. 

Defense: They lost a lot of experience. Depth will be an issue on what is probably the weak link on this team. Walker May is the only headliner here, someone or several someone's are going to have to step up for them to keep pace.

Our Thoughts: The defense is an issue. It's why we don't think they'll make the big leap...this year. The 'Dores are still a program on the rise and for the first time in decades, there is some excitement surrounding them. There are less likely to be issues here as the fanbase traditionally doesn't expect much.

7. Kentucky 4-8, 1-7 in the conference

Overview: Something is missing here and we, nor anyone else can put their fingers on it. They should be better, though playing in the SEC probably doesn't help. Joker Phillips may be in trouble without a winning season too.

Offense: Max Smith was solid the 2nd half of last season, the question is can he continue to improve. WR La'rod King leads a group of solid backs that should contribute. With 3 starters gone on the line however, the question is who will be able to block for these guys?

Defense: Also a lot of holes here. Six to be exact. Donte Rumph and Mister Cobble (yes, that's his name) are the only starters of note to return. There isn't enough depth here to keep these guys competitive for long.

Our Thoughts: It's going to be a long year in Lexington. They aren't horrible, but in the SEC they are. Without much on defense, it doesn't matter what else they do because the offense isn't better than anyone they play.

Division MVP: Aaron Murray, UGA

Best Offensive Player: James Franklin, Missouri

Best Defensive Player: Jarvis Jones, UGA

Best Coach: Steve Spurrier, South Carolina