((HT: BASTA/Ben Leonard))
Clearly, the Giants have not had the most flashy off-season. They missed out on re-signing Pablo Sandoval and picking up Yasmany Tomas and Jon Lester, while the Padres went out and acquired practically every outfielder on the market. However, standing relatively pat may not be the worst thing for the Giants. They have made three financially sound moves this winter, the first being re-signing reliever Sergio Romo to a two-year, fifteen million dollar contract. Sabean followed by signing Jake Peavy to a two-year, twenty-four million dollar deal, and then went out and acquired Casey McGehee from Miami to man the hot corner. In acquiring McGehee, the Giants gave up merely pitching prospects Kendry Flores and Luis Castillo, who apparently play baseball. Giants fans may bemoan Sabean’s seeming lack of action, but his moves may prove to be shrewd when it is all said and done.
First and foremost, McGehee will never replace Sandoval in the clubhouse or on the field. He does have a very similar portly frame, but has much less power. He was about an average major league hitter in 2014, becoming the National League’s Comeback Player of the Year and posting a wRC+ of 102. For those looking for a masher, McGehee has never been one in any resemblance, although he did launch twenty-three homers in 2011, albeit fueled in part by relatively hitter-neutral Miller Park. He also brings championship experience to the table, as he won a title in Japan with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles in 2013. Perhaps Sabean values his experience winning in odd years.
Lacking power, his success is fueled by average, a statistic that can largely be dictated by luck, as hit placement fluctuates from season to season. However, despite his inflated .335 BABIP, way above his career averages, McGehee’s line drive rate spiked almost three percent in 2014. Harder contact makes it easier for hits to fall in. Hence, McGehee’s increase in hard hits balls was likely due to an adjustment he successfully made, not luck.
In addition, McGehee has proven to be an slightly-below average defender at the big league level. He has lost twenty-four DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) in his six years in the big leagues, a serviceable number. He is no Manny Machado, but he certainly isn’t the Matt Kemp of the infield. Once more, McGehee comes at virtually no cost in prospects or money, and likewise risk, commanding a salary of just over one million dollars in 2015. He is under club control for just one year, and is likely a stop-gap type piece until Sabean can find a free agent or trading partner to solidify the position for good. Essentially, the Giants gave up next to nothing for a reliable rental at third base, a player who posted a sold 2.0 WAR in 2014.
The Giants didn’t just save money at third base: they also bought from the bargain bin at starting pitcher in signing Peavy. Peavy pitched very well with the Giants in 2014, posting a 2.17 ERA after coming to the Bay Area from Boston. However, this success was largely fueled by an insanely low 3.2 HR/FB%, well below his career average of 9.5%. For this reason, Steamer pegs Peavy for a 3.67 ERA in 2015, a solid number for a bottom-of-the-rotation starter, about market value for twelve million. Bochy has a special bond with Peavy that started in their days in San Diego; he just pitches better under Bochy.
For these reasons, Peavy likely represents insurance for the Giants if they don’t sign James Shields or Max Scherzer, and could fit in nicely in the fourth spot in the rotation behind Bumgarner, Cain, and Hudson. If they do sign Shields or Scherzer, Tim Lincecum would be forced out of the rotation, leaving the Giants with considerable depth at starting pitcher, coupled with Yusmiero Petit. In either scenario, the Giants are set for 2015 with their rotation; Shields or Scherzer would just be icing on the cake. Economic savings on Peavy and McGehee give the Giants the flexibility to win a bidding war with any team competing for Scherzer or Shields’ services, namely the Detroit Tigers. The Giants are currently the favorites for Shields, with no other team clearly in the running. Shields would be markedly cheaper, and is much more likely to sign with San Francisco.
Sergio Romo’s deal was probably the worst financially for the Giants, but fifteen million over two years isn’t much of a risk in this era of baseball. However, as I mentioned in my offseason preview, Romo has been in decline every year since 2011.
Year/xFIP/WAR
2011 1.49/2.0
2012 2.61/1.0
2013 3.20/1/1
2014 3.40/-.3
Romo’s slider didn’t break as tightly in 2014, especially during a rough June stretch. However, he picked it up as the season dragged on in the setup role. Hitters seem to have adjusted to his increasingly hittable slider. However, with righty reliever Pat Neshek signing a very similar deal with Houston, the Giants did not over-spend, at least too much. Romo projects to be somewhat better in 2015, as Steamer sees him posting a 2.95 ERA.
In all, Sabean spent around twenty million on three players. Giants fans may decry Sabean as frugal, but his strategy of signing his homegrown players has certainly paid off in the last five years. Sabean has shown he was willing to spend big in offering competitive deals to Lester and Sandoval, and these smaller deals allow him to spend big on a right-handed horse. Casey McGehee and Jake Peavy aren’t quite Sandoval and Lester, but they aren’t quite Joaquin Arias and Tim Lincecum, either. This mid-tier moves may not seem significant, but they solidify two very shaky spots on the Giants’ roster. Whether Sabean uses his surplus money on a left fielder AND a top-of-the-line starter remains to be seen, but the Giants would be fine starting off 2015 with Lincecum in the fifth starter role and Blanco in left. Blanco is a perfectly competent major league left fielder, one who can handle cavernous AT&T Park very well. As I alluded to in my off-season preview in November:
Unless Sabean becomes infatuated with another veteran outfielder (See Derosa, Mark), there is no reason to believe that anyone but Gregor Blanco will be the Opening Day left fielder.
Blanco is cheap and reliable, and can handle the bat more than well enough, posting a 107 wRC+ in 2014. Sabean quietly has had a great offseason, although not moving at quite the same pace as the A’s or the Padres. His apparent frugality allows him to spend big on those who deserve the big bucks, Nick Markakis not being one of them.
Showing posts with label Jake Peavy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jake Peavy. Show all posts
Saturday, December 20, 2014
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
BASTA: Royals Slaughter Giants To Earn Game 7
((HT: BASTA/Apurv Baichwal))
Ouch.
Today’s game was bad, and there’s really not too much to be said about it. The Giants got shutout 10-0, in Game Six of the World Series. Fortunately, they were up 3-2 before today, so today’s game can simply be forgotten.
Peavy had a pretty awful day by statistics, as he only lasted 1.1 innings, and he gave up five earned runs on six hits and a walk. However, the only consolation to this awful stat line is that most of these hits were cheap, including a chopper to Brandon Belt that turned into an infield single. In the second inning, the Royals’ leadoff man, Alcides Escobar hit this chopper to Belt, who had to come off the line to field it. With runners at second and third, Belt took his time checking the runners to make sure they would not try to advance in this one out situation. He was then about to run to first to get the out, but then Peavy called for him to look home for some unknown reason, causing him to hesitate. Then, by the time Belt could run to the bag, the speedy Escobar had beat him there for an infield single. Although this hit was an extreme example, the idea was still there: the Royals got a lot of lucky hits, especially in the second inning.
In total, they scored ten runs, seven of which came in the fateful second inning. Generally, none of the Giants pitchers were on top of their stuff, although they got dined a lot worse than they should have been. For example, Peavy was actually not pitching too badly, and he only gave up five runs because he left the game with the bases loaded after giving up two runs. Since everyone who was on base scored, Peavy was charged with all of those runs, although Yusmerio Petit was the pitcher who actually gave them up.
Here's proof:
((HT: MLB.com))
Looking at Petit, he had a very poor outing today, giving up two runs on three hits in .2 innings pitched. He has been stellar in long relief situations through this postseason, besides today, and hopefully this game is just a hiccup. He has been great out of the bullpen, filling in the middle innings when the Giants’ starters get pulled early. He will most likely be vital tomorrow, in Game Seven of the World Series, the last game of the baseball season.
On a more negative note, Hunter Strickland pitched like Hunter Strickland again today, and he gave up a solo home run to Mike Moustakas in the seventh inning. Hopefully Bruce Bochy has realized that he is not a reliable pitcher to put out on the mound, and he will likely not be used tomorrow as long as the game is close, which it most likely will be.
Tomorrow’s game has the same start time of 5:07 PDT, in Kansas City, and it will be a showdown, as it is an elimination game for both teams. The winner will earn a ring; the loser will go home. So, the Giants really need to win this game.
The Giants hitters only mustered six hits today, and that number will most likely not be enough to win the game. Ten hits is probably the magic number that they will need to win, although that all depends on whether they are able to string their hits together into rallies. The Giants did have five walks today, which is a surprisingly good number, but most of that must be credited to the wild tendencies of the Royals’ starter Yordano Ventura, who gave up three walks in a row in the third inning.
Veteran right-hander Tim Hudson will start the game, facing off against the Royals’ veteran righty Jeremy Guthrie, in a repeat matchup from Game 3. Once again the Giants need to hope for a different outcome, as they lost last time 3-2. Hudson will have to manage his control like he always does and keep the ball low so that he can get groundouts. If he can keep the ball mainly on the ground, he should be able to have a solid outing and hopefully prevent the Royals from starting any big rallies. Petit may also have a role tomorrow in long relief, especially if Bruce Bochy decides to make a pitching change early. Finally, Madison Bumgarner may even see some action tomorrow if the situation of the game deems it necessary. Seeing as this game is the final one of the season, Bumgarner may come out of the bullpen in key situations in Bochy feels that he can help the Giants win.
The Giants need a win tomorrow (obviously), and they will do anything necessary to win it (obviously). So, Bumgarner may see action, Lincecum may see action, and anyone could be coming off the bench to pinch run or pinch hit in seemingly unusual situations, as the Giants will need to manufacture runs in anyway they can. To do so, they will need to maximize their potential to score, meaning that they need faster runners on the bases whenever possible, and with runners in scoring position they do not want to be wasting at bats on weaker hitters.
Unlike today, where the Giants got shutout, tomorrow San Francisco needs to score some runs if they want to win. If the offense can click and come up with a couple strong rallies to put four or five runs on the board, the Giants will have a quite decent chance of winning the Fall Classic. Hudson will have to be a workhorse, and the bullpen will have to be locked in on the pitching side, and with these two aspects together the Giants have a very high chance at winning. Finally, San Francisco has made itself famous for the “it” factor, where they always seem to get good bounces, great rolls, and the benefit of all coincidence. We wrote about this “it” factor in our World Series preview, and the notes still ring true. The Giants need the baseball gods to be on their side if they want to win, as today the baseball gods sided with the Royals making the Giants lose. Finally, the Giants can win tomorrow, but only if they string hits together, lock their bullpen in, and have the benefits of the baseball gods on their side, providing them the final spark that they need to finish October with a ring.
Follow Apurv on Twitter: @abaichwal
Ouch.
Today’s game was bad, and there’s really not too much to be said about it. The Giants got shutout 10-0, in Game Six of the World Series. Fortunately, they were up 3-2 before today, so today’s game can simply be forgotten.
Peavy had a pretty awful day by statistics, as he only lasted 1.1 innings, and he gave up five earned runs on six hits and a walk. However, the only consolation to this awful stat line is that most of these hits were cheap, including a chopper to Brandon Belt that turned into an infield single. In the second inning, the Royals’ leadoff man, Alcides Escobar hit this chopper to Belt, who had to come off the line to field it. With runners at second and third, Belt took his time checking the runners to make sure they would not try to advance in this one out situation. He was then about to run to first to get the out, but then Peavy called for him to look home for some unknown reason, causing him to hesitate. Then, by the time Belt could run to the bag, the speedy Escobar had beat him there for an infield single. Although this hit was an extreme example, the idea was still there: the Royals got a lot of lucky hits, especially in the second inning.
In total, they scored ten runs, seven of which came in the fateful second inning. Generally, none of the Giants pitchers were on top of their stuff, although they got dined a lot worse than they should have been. For example, Peavy was actually not pitching too badly, and he only gave up five runs because he left the game with the bases loaded after giving up two runs. Since everyone who was on base scored, Peavy was charged with all of those runs, although Yusmerio Petit was the pitcher who actually gave them up.
Here's proof:
((HT: MLB.com))
Looking at Petit, he had a very poor outing today, giving up two runs on three hits in .2 innings pitched. He has been stellar in long relief situations through this postseason, besides today, and hopefully this game is just a hiccup. He has been great out of the bullpen, filling in the middle innings when the Giants’ starters get pulled early. He will most likely be vital tomorrow, in Game Seven of the World Series, the last game of the baseball season.
On a more negative note, Hunter Strickland pitched like Hunter Strickland again today, and he gave up a solo home run to Mike Moustakas in the seventh inning. Hopefully Bruce Bochy has realized that he is not a reliable pitcher to put out on the mound, and he will likely not be used tomorrow as long as the game is close, which it most likely will be.
Tomorrow’s game has the same start time of 5:07 PDT, in Kansas City, and it will be a showdown, as it is an elimination game for both teams. The winner will earn a ring; the loser will go home. So, the Giants really need to win this game.
The Giants hitters only mustered six hits today, and that number will most likely not be enough to win the game. Ten hits is probably the magic number that they will need to win, although that all depends on whether they are able to string their hits together into rallies. The Giants did have five walks today, which is a surprisingly good number, but most of that must be credited to the wild tendencies of the Royals’ starter Yordano Ventura, who gave up three walks in a row in the third inning.
Veteran right-hander Tim Hudson will start the game, facing off against the Royals’ veteran righty Jeremy Guthrie, in a repeat matchup from Game 3. Once again the Giants need to hope for a different outcome, as they lost last time 3-2. Hudson will have to manage his control like he always does and keep the ball low so that he can get groundouts. If he can keep the ball mainly on the ground, he should be able to have a solid outing and hopefully prevent the Royals from starting any big rallies. Petit may also have a role tomorrow in long relief, especially if Bruce Bochy decides to make a pitching change early. Finally, Madison Bumgarner may even see some action tomorrow if the situation of the game deems it necessary. Seeing as this game is the final one of the season, Bumgarner may come out of the bullpen in key situations in Bochy feels that he can help the Giants win.
The Giants need a win tomorrow (obviously), and they will do anything necessary to win it (obviously). So, Bumgarner may see action, Lincecum may see action, and anyone could be coming off the bench to pinch run or pinch hit in seemingly unusual situations, as the Giants will need to manufacture runs in anyway they can. To do so, they will need to maximize their potential to score, meaning that they need faster runners on the bases whenever possible, and with runners in scoring position they do not want to be wasting at bats on weaker hitters.
Unlike today, where the Giants got shutout, tomorrow San Francisco needs to score some runs if they want to win. If the offense can click and come up with a couple strong rallies to put four or five runs on the board, the Giants will have a quite decent chance of winning the Fall Classic. Hudson will have to be a workhorse, and the bullpen will have to be locked in on the pitching side, and with these two aspects together the Giants have a very high chance at winning. Finally, San Francisco has made itself famous for the “it” factor, where they always seem to get good bounces, great rolls, and the benefit of all coincidence. We wrote about this “it” factor in our World Series preview, and the notes still ring true. The Giants need the baseball gods to be on their side if they want to win, as today the baseball gods sided with the Royals making the Giants lose. Finally, the Giants can win tomorrow, but only if they string hits together, lock their bullpen in, and have the benefits of the baseball gods on their side, providing them the final spark that they need to finish October with a ring.
Follow Apurv on Twitter: @abaichwal
Sunday, August 24, 2014
BASTA: Giants Choke In Atrocious Fashion To Drop Series To Nationals
((HT: BASTA their own selves/Ben Leonard))
The Giants came to Washington hoping to take a series victory. They leave undeserving to play in our nation’s capital, more fit to play in Williamsport. Holding a 5-0 lead after three innings, they managed to lay an egg and fall 14-6, representing a 14-1 run for the Nationals after the third.
The Giants tagged the once overhyped Stephen Strasburg for five runs in four innings, forcing him to throw seventy-nine pitches. The five runs he allowed were the most runs he had allowed at home since his last game in 2012 before he was shut down for precautionary reasons. Gregor Blanco set the tone right off the bat, working Strasburg to a 3-2 count, and proceeding to launch a solo homer to right. The light-hitting Blanco’s shot traveled an estimated 399 feet. Travis Ishikawa added another solo shot of his own in the second, putting the score at 2-0. The Giants scored three runs in the third inning behind a Michael Morse RBI double, an Ishikawa sacrifice fly, and a Brandon Crawford RBI single, a rarity these days for the ice cold shortstop. He has posted a 50 wRC+ and a .177 average since the All-Star Break.
How could an atrocity like this happen to a team that lit up Washington’s ace? The game was setting up to be a laugher after three, with the Nationals still not mustering a hit off of Vogelsong. That certainly changed in the fourth, with three doubles off of Vogelsong that scored two runs, cutting the San Francisco lead to 5-2. A blip on the radar, but the Giants still appeared poised to win handily.
Jake Peavy was ejected in the third inning for arguing with the umpiring crew about balls and strikes, even though he wasn’t in the game. He was leaning over the dugout railing, and had been visibly jawing with the crew for the whole game, despite a 5-0 lead. Peavy was a stone’s throw from my position at the yard. Peavy’s passion for the game is appreciated, but he took it too far on Sunday.
It all came apart in the sixth. Hunter Pence added a sacrifice fly, extending the lead to 6-2. That would be all the good news the Giants could conjure up the rest of the game. Jeremy Affeldt came in after Adam LaRoche struck out to start the frame and promptly served up a home run to Ian Desmond and the momentum to Washington. A combination of Affeldt and Jean Machi could not retire any of the next nine Washington hitters, giving up six runs in the process. Affeldt could not get an out, and was charged for four runs on five hits. His offspeed pitches were hanging, and he meated several fastballs, and even threw a “scud” with his heater, a wild pitch that scored a run. A 6-2 lead quickly became a 8-6 deficit.
The wheels came off in the bottom of the eight. Juan Gutierrez found way too much of the plate, making the game a 14-6 laugher. Gutierrez gave up five runs in the frame, including home runs to Bryce Harper and Danny Espinosa. Bochy let the righty go thirty-seven pitches, conceding the game to Washington, as he wanted to rest the rest of his bullpen.
The bullpen’s implosion is a troubling sign for this ballclub. The unit gave up eleven runs in only four and two-thirds innings of work. In the month of August, they have posted a 4.04 ERA. (not including Sunday) Pitching and defense are supposedly the core of this team, and it certainly didn’t look like it today. Michael Morse continued his plodding defense in the outfield, making some bad runs on balls that would have been caught by Gregor Blanco. Part of the problem was Angel Pagan’s absence, who has sat out the last two games nursing a calf strain he sustained on Friday.
Duane and Mike discuss the loss
((HT: CSN Bay Area))
Notes:
Jake Peavy (2-3, 3.58) will look for his third straight victory Monday night against the Rockies, the first game of a seven-game homestand for the club. Peavy will toe the rubber against the young lefty Tyler Matzek. (2-9, 5.38) A pigeon stayed on the field for the latter part of the game, on the outfield grass just behind the shortstop. It made it on the big-screen, causing many Washington fans to dub it the “rally pigeon.”
The Giants came to Washington hoping to take a series victory. They leave undeserving to play in our nation’s capital, more fit to play in Williamsport. Holding a 5-0 lead after three innings, they managed to lay an egg and fall 14-6, representing a 14-1 run for the Nationals after the third.
The Giants tagged the once overhyped Stephen Strasburg for five runs in four innings, forcing him to throw seventy-nine pitches. The five runs he allowed were the most runs he had allowed at home since his last game in 2012 before he was shut down for precautionary reasons. Gregor Blanco set the tone right off the bat, working Strasburg to a 3-2 count, and proceeding to launch a solo homer to right. The light-hitting Blanco’s shot traveled an estimated 399 feet. Travis Ishikawa added another solo shot of his own in the second, putting the score at 2-0. The Giants scored three runs in the third inning behind a Michael Morse RBI double, an Ishikawa sacrifice fly, and a Brandon Crawford RBI single, a rarity these days for the ice cold shortstop. He has posted a 50 wRC+ and a .177 average since the All-Star Break.
How could an atrocity like this happen to a team that lit up Washington’s ace? The game was setting up to be a laugher after three, with the Nationals still not mustering a hit off of Vogelsong. That certainly changed in the fourth, with three doubles off of Vogelsong that scored two runs, cutting the San Francisco lead to 5-2. A blip on the radar, but the Giants still appeared poised to win handily.
Jake Peavy was ejected in the third inning for arguing with the umpiring crew about balls and strikes, even though he wasn’t in the game. He was leaning over the dugout railing, and had been visibly jawing with the crew for the whole game, despite a 5-0 lead. Peavy was a stone’s throw from my position at the yard. Peavy’s passion for the game is appreciated, but he took it too far on Sunday.
It all came apart in the sixth. Hunter Pence added a sacrifice fly, extending the lead to 6-2. That would be all the good news the Giants could conjure up the rest of the game. Jeremy Affeldt came in after Adam LaRoche struck out to start the frame and promptly served up a home run to Ian Desmond and the momentum to Washington. A combination of Affeldt and Jean Machi could not retire any of the next nine Washington hitters, giving up six runs in the process. Affeldt could not get an out, and was charged for four runs on five hits. His offspeed pitches were hanging, and he meated several fastballs, and even threw a “scud” with his heater, a wild pitch that scored a run. A 6-2 lead quickly became a 8-6 deficit.
The wheels came off in the bottom of the eight. Juan Gutierrez found way too much of the plate, making the game a 14-6 laugher. Gutierrez gave up five runs in the frame, including home runs to Bryce Harper and Danny Espinosa. Bochy let the righty go thirty-seven pitches, conceding the game to Washington, as he wanted to rest the rest of his bullpen.
The bullpen’s implosion is a troubling sign for this ballclub. The unit gave up eleven runs in only four and two-thirds innings of work. In the month of August, they have posted a 4.04 ERA. (not including Sunday) Pitching and defense are supposedly the core of this team, and it certainly didn’t look like it today. Michael Morse continued his plodding defense in the outfield, making some bad runs on balls that would have been caught by Gregor Blanco. Part of the problem was Angel Pagan’s absence, who has sat out the last two games nursing a calf strain he sustained on Friday.
Duane and Mike discuss the loss
((HT: CSN Bay Area))
Notes:
Jake Peavy (2-3, 3.58) will look for his third straight victory Monday night against the Rockies, the first game of a seven-game homestand for the club. Peavy will toe the rubber against the young lefty Tyler Matzek. (2-9, 5.38) A pigeon stayed on the field for the latter part of the game, on the outfield grass just behind the shortstop. It made it on the big-screen, causing many Washington fans to dub it the “rally pigeon.”
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